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By CHRISTINA BLIZZARD
With the big yawn that was this week's budget behind them, the Ontario Liberals can now get on with the
really important business of government -- like planning for the next election.
Liberal insiders tell me that key among those preparations is a major cabinet shuffle that will happen shortly
after the House rises for its summer break, June 1. Briefing books are now being prepared so new
ministers will be able to find their way around.
In must be said that Premier Dalton McGuinty and his cabinet have been relatively bulletproof so far. No
major scandals. No big gaffes. But he does have some nagging problems in cabinet that he needs to fix
now -- before they become a liability.
Facing demotion, according to sources: Colleges and Universities Minister
Mary Anne Chambers; Transportation Minister Harinder Takhar;
Environment Minister Leona Dombrowsky and Social Services Minister
Sandra Pupatello. All have logged very disappointing performances and
are rumoured to be on their way down. Dombrowsky will likely be dumped
from cabinet altogether, while the others may find themselves in lesser
roles.
Moving sideways: Children's Minister Marie Bountrogianni is highly regarded by both her political
colleagues and the media. While she's caught flak lately over the failure of the government to fund
treatment for autistic children past the age of 6, most see it as a policy she is uncomfortable with.
As a child psychologist, she is just too close to the file and would benefit from a sideways move. Earlier this
month, Bountrogianni made a big blunder, appearing at a funding announcement with Prime Minister Paul
Martin at a time when the McGuinty Liberals were slamming their federal cousins over the so-called fiscal
gap.
Moving upward and onward: Some solid performers include Consumer and Business Services Minister Jim
Watson; Energy Minister Dwight Duncan; Education Minister Gerard Kennedy and Tourism Minister Jim
Bradley. Bradley was environment minister in the David Peterson years. He could move into Dombrowsky's
shoes.
Under pressure to close coal-fired plants by 2007 and the need to make a decision on building a new
nuclear plant, Duncan is anxious to get out of the highly contentious energy portfolio, I'm told. He's
considered highly capable and could end up in Finance -- but only if Greg Sorbara is inclined to move.
Sorbara is arguably the most powerful minister in cabinet. More powerful than McGuinty, some believe. A
former cabinet minister in the Peterson government, a former president of the party who helped restore
Liberal fortunes and sweep them into office, a wealthy businessman and key fundraiser, Sorbara pretty well
writes his own ticket. The big issue is whether he will run again in the next election or return to the
business world. If he's not running again, he may well move aside and make way for more ambitious junior
ministers.
Kennedy has performed beyond expectations in education and could move on to something like health. The
present health minister, George Smitherman, managed to pull off a deal with doctors at the last minute, but
was under a great deal of fire for a long time. He's highly combative, burns a lot of bridges and could be
moved.
Watson is impressive, capable and extremely talented. Some view him as a potential successor to
McGuinty. He could move to education.
Outsiders on the way in: Don Valley West MPP Kathleen Wynne and John Wilkinson from Perth-Middlesex
have both impressed party insiders and are said to be cabinet bound.
Meanwhile, a helpful hint for PC leader John Tory: Define yourself before the Liberals do it for you. In his
budget news conference Wednesday, Tory said he would cut the health tax by 10% -- but not balance the
budget this year. It seems he can't decide if he's a social and fiscal conservative in the Jim Flaherty/Mike
Harris mould or an urban red Tory of Bill Davis' ilk. He needs to choose -- now.